Date saved: 2026-10-20 18:00 (PDT)
Sources: IEMed, Modern Diplomacy, Restricted Handling (Substack), ISDO, SPF, TASS, Reuters, Washington Post, AP, France Info
Key findings
Trump waives Russia sanctions, Europe left holding the line
- Modern Diplomacy (Oct 19, 2026): On October 16, President Trump waived a sweeping slate of Russia energy sanctions days before they were due to take effect, under a law he had signed only the month before. The move came as the US-Israeli war on Iran drove fuel prices sharply higher, and with congressional midterms weeks away. The Western sanctions regime against Russia, built since 2022 as a transatlantic project, now has one remaining custodian: Europe. The question is whether Europe has the tools, money, and consistency to carry it alone. Trump's waivers included tariffs of up to 100% on goods entering the US from the five largest importers of Russian oil or gas, a group that includes China and India. António Costa insisted that sanctions on Moscow would remain in force until the war ends, and the EU is preparing its 22nd sanctions package, though the summer showed how easily the unanimity requirement can shrink a promised package to almost nothing. A significant share of Russia's oil exports moves through a shadow fleet of ageing tankers, many passing through European waters. (Source)
- Restricted Handling (Oct 13, 2026): On October 12, the EU imposed its largest single Russia listings package, adding 1,569 Russian companies and executives to its restrictive-measures list, 826 companies in the military-industrial complex and 743 chief executives. Named supply chains include semiconductors, microchips, computers, communications equipment, satellite systems, optics, navigation equipment, explosives, and ammunition used in advanced missiles, drones, and aircraft. Listed entities face asset freezes and prohibitions on receiving funds. In a separate action, the EU sanctioned 77 people over September Duma voting in occupied Ukraine. (Source)
- Treasury General License 135 (Oct 9, 2026): Authorized transactions involving the sale, delivery, offloading, and importation of Russian-origin diesel through April 7, 2027, covering more than 2.25 million barrels for US and global markets. Trump defended the decision as relief for American consumers; six Republican and Democratic senators urged reversal, questioning whether it conflicts with the 2022 statutory ban on Russian energy imports. Russia's deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said Moscow could rebuild diesel exports to 3.5 million metric tons a month by year-end. (Source)
Hormuz crisis and energy geopolitics
- ISDO Analysis (Aug 2026): As of early August 2026, Hormuz remains effectively closed to routine commercial traffic. Iran and Oman are reportedly close to a framework for reopening. Red Sea transits continue at a fraction of pre-crisis levels. A genuinely new driver: the direct entanglement of Russia and China's sanctions-evasion shadow fleet networks with the crisis. Iran's closure of Hormuz raised global oil prices in ways that materially benefited Russia's sanctioned export revenues even as it complicated China's oil import logistics, shaping shadow fleet routing decisions across multiple straits. The approaching January 2027 EU ban on Russian LNG imports had not measurably reduced European purchases of Yamal LNG as of February 2026. (Source)
- Restricted Handling: Iran disclosed a sixteen-article bill for regulating Hormuz traffic, fees, insurance, and sanctions-linked access. The forecast assumes oil and gas shipments through Hormuz resume by March 2027. (Source)
- IEMed (Med Yearbook 2026): 45% of China's oil imports transit the Hormuz Strait, but oil represents less than 20% of the country's total energy consumption. The US military's inconclusive performance in destroying Iranian missile launchers and preventing Hormuz closure may lead China and Asian governments to question US ability and resolve to intervene in a similar crisis in Asia, be it the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait. Following Iran's disruption of Hormuz transit, the US administration issued a temporary sanctions waiver to allow countries to buy Russian oil. (Source)
Great-power competition: China, Russia, NATO
- SPF / IINA: China's navy has surpassed the US Navy in vessel count, but the United States maintains superior power with more capital ships. The US has redeployed part of its naval forces to the Indo-Pacific. NATO's 2022 Strategic Concept referred to the Indo-Pacific as "important for NATO, given that developments in that region can directly affect Euro-Atlantic security." The deployment of North Korean soldiers to support Russia's war in Ukraine confirms that the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific theaters are connected. Strategic cooperation between Iran, China, and Russia (including direct military and economic support for Russia) has raised concerns among EU and NATO nations. IP4 countries (Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand) have demonstrated commitment through military and economic aid to Ukraine, condemnation of Russia's war, and sanctions. (Source)
- Restricted Handling: On October 13, Washington joined Belize, Paraguay, and Taiwan in rejecting Beijing's October 12 sanctions on two ministers over their governments' relations with Taipei. State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott said the United States opposed Chinese coercion against countries exercising sovereign rights. Poland accused Russian intelligence of directing a September 23 arson attack on a Starlink ground station near Warsaw, two Turkish citizens arrested in Germany are suspected. France boarded the EU-sanctioned tanker DF Peak in the Indian Ocean south of Réunion on October 12 to check its nationality; documents confirmed doubts about the flag's regularity. (Source)
- NATO commander speech (Oct 12): General Alexus Grynkewich explained in Warsaw how NATO would answer an armed attack while containing escalation: block an initial assault, blunt any continued advance, and if required, break the forces and supporting operational system. He said conflict was neither imminent nor inevitable. (Source)
US-European peace proposal for Ukraine
- Restricted Handling / Washington Post (Oct 12-13, 2026): A US-European peace package became public on October 13, pairing security guarantees for Ukraine with territorial and economic concessions benefiting Russia. The four-part concept included: an Article 5-equivalent military response if Russia attacked Ukraine again; a World Bank and BlackRock reconstruction framework; renewed Russian access to European energy markets through a possible profit-sharing pipeline; phased sanctions removal; and a ceasefire along the existing line of control. No party has agreed. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia knew of the concept only through press reports. Ukraine reported new strikes on its energy system while Moscow did not confirm Trump's claimed energy ceasefire. (Source)
Source links
- Modern Diplomacy: Trump Eases Russia Sanctions: Can Europe Hold the Line Alone?
- Restricted Handling: RH 10.13.26 | Last 24-48 hrs: Peace Terms, Software Provenance, and Hormuz Rules
- IEMed: Great Power Competition from the Red Sea to the Persian Gulf (Med Yearbook 2026)
- ISDO: Analysis of Maritime Geopolitics: Close 2026
- SPF IINA: Cooperation between European and Indo-Pacific Powers in the U.S. Alliance System