Date saved: 2026-10-23 03:00 (PDT)
Sources: U.S. Intelligence Community ODNI, Hudson Institute, European Union Consilium, Al Jazeera, Swedish UI
Key findings
The intelligence community's assessment
- ODNI, 2026 Annual Threat Assessment (March 2026): China aims to dominate its region and challenge Washington's leadership, promote its own multilateral and economic influence, and strengthen its military while viewing the U.S. as its main strategic competitor; Russia continues to challenge U.S. interests and power, seeking to restore its influence in the former Soviet space, particularly Ukraine; the IC assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification; Russia is likely to remain resilient against Western sanctions and export controls, although at the cost of expanding budget deficits and underinvestment in the civilian economy that increase the risk of long-term economic stagnation and deepening dependence on China. (Source)
The "axis of challengers" analysis
- Hudson Institute, Peter Rough and Ulrich Speck (Oct 21, 2026): A new anti-Western axis, centered on China and Russia and reinforced by Iran and North Korea, is threatening the security and prosperity of the free world; Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine is the most visible front line; China plays the key economic role in the Middle East, buying almost all of Iran's oil despite a US-led sanctions regime; China's pressure on Taiwan increases almost daily and a Taiwan scenario could trigger a Third World War; the axis of challengers considers the free and open West to be a threat and is working to overturn the US-led global order. (Source)
- European Union Consilium (2026): Russia uses a network of shadow fleet vessels for oil exports, evading sanctions, while creating maritime, environmental, legal, and enforcement risks; China positions itself to win systemic competition, combining industrial scale, technological ambition, and global reach while exploiting instability; China's support to Russia's aggression against Ukraine is a crucial enabler for Moscow; China's increasingly assertive behavior in the South and East China Seas and across the Taiwan Strait can have a growing impact on European and Indo-Pacific security. (Source)
China-Russia dynamics and the Arctic
- Swedish UI, China rises in an unstable world (2026): Chinese analysts almost unanimously expect the comprehensive rivalry between China and the United States to continue in the long term; many foresee prolonged strategic decoupling and persistent contestation in the Asia-Pacific; relations between China and Russia are expected to remain stable and broadly positive, but analysts acknowledge latent tensions, including a growing power imbalance. (Source)
- ODNI Annual Threat Assessment: Russia, and China to a lesser extent, are expanding their interest and presence in the Arctic to counter perceived U.S. inroads and advance their strategic interests; China, Russia, and North Korea are developing new, novel, or advanced delivery systems to increase or obtain a capability to strike the Homeland. (Source)
The 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community names China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea as viewing the U.S. as a strategic competitor and potential adversary, and describes a world in which armed conflict is becoming more common, major power competition continues, and military capabilities among state and nonstate actors are improving. The assessment is not a worst-case scenario (it is the intelligence community's baseline. The EU's consolidated geopolitical analysis is more pointed: it describes a deliberate effort by Russia and China to "establish regional dominance and reshape the global order in line with their interests, fostering a return to a sphere-of-influence logic," with China's support enabling Russia's war effort and China's asymmetric advantages), trade imbalances, critical raw materials, technological advances, being used as leverage against the EU.
The Hudson Institute's October 2026 analysis frames the same landscape as an "axis of challengers" led by China and Russia and reinforced by Iran and North Korea, and warns that if Beijing decides to attack Taiwan, a Third World War scenario becomes possible: China attacks Taiwan, Russia attacks NATO, and Iran attacks Israel or the Gulf states (a scenario in which the U.S. would likely be overwhelmed. The throughline is that the regional conflicts are not separate) they are interlocking, and the economic architecture that enables them (China buying almost all of Iran's oil despite U.S.-led sanctions, China providing dual-use goods vital to the Russian arms industry) is the connective tissue that makes isolation of any one actor difficult. What to watch next is whether the Kremlin's proposal for a trilateral U.S.-Russia-China meeting at the APEC summit becomes anything more than a trial balloon, and whether the EU's push for burden-sharing within NATO produces actual European conventional defense capability or remains a diplomatic aspiration.
Source links
- ODNI: 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
- Hudson Institute: America and Europe: A Blueprint for the Next Chapter
- EU Consilium: Geopolitical tensions and strategic challenges
- Think BRICS: Multipolar World Order: US, China & Russia | Glenn Diesen
- Network 20/20: America's Great-Power Opportunity
- Global War Analysis: NATO Triggered a New Cold War! John Mearsheimer
- Abishur Prakash: How Trump, Putin & Xi Could Carve Up The Globe