Geopolitical World Intel: Research Digest

Date saved: 2026-10-23 18:00 (PDT)

Sources: Hudson Institute, Reuters, Financial Times, European Union Consilium, Carnegie Endowment, Swedish UI, Sejong Institute, NATO

Key findings

Hudson Institute: a new anti-Western axis threatens the free world

A new anti-Western axis centered on China and Russia and reinforced by Iran and North Korea is threatening the security and prosperity of the free world, according to the Hudson Institute. In the Middle East, Russia and China have provided important support to Tehran, with China buying almost all of Iran's oil despite US-led sanctions. If Beijing decides to attack Taipei, a Third World War scenario becomes possible as Russia attacks NATO and Iran attacks Israel or the Gulf states simultaneously. (Source)

EU id identifies Russia and China as determined to reshape the global order

The EU's foreign policy document states that Russia and China are determined to establish regional dominance and reshape the global order in line with their interests, fostering a return to a sphere-of-influence logic. China positions itself to win systemic competition, combining industrial scale, technological ambition, and global reach. The deepening China-Russia strategic partnership continues increasing the interconnection of strategic theaters from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. (Source)

China rises in unstable world - Swedish Institute analysis

Chinese analysts almost unanimously expect the comprehensive rivalry between China and the United States to continue in the long term, with many foreseeing prolonged strategic decoupling and persistent contestation in the Asia-Pacific. Relations between China and Russia are expected to remain stable and broadly positive, with Russia viewed as China's key strategic partner. Chinese analysts acknowledge latent tensions including a growing power imbalance. For Europe, China is benefiting from the ongoing transatlantic split and will continue to prioritize its partnership with Russia. (Source)

Sejong Institute: 2026 as a global geopolitical crisis year

The near-simultaneous crises that erupted beginning in January 2026, including the US operation to apprehend Nicolás Maduro, the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, and the intensification of Sino-Japanese tensions alongside heightened military tensions in the Taiwan Strait, cannot be reduced to discrete localized disputes. These developments are deeply interconnected, functioning as critical geopolitical fault lines along which the Western-led unipolar order and the emerging multipolar order championed by China and Russia are locked in direct confrontation. (Source)

NATO and Europe face burden-sharing reckoning

The US can no longer focus on Europe and has to shift resources to Asia and maintain a presence in the Middle East. As a result, Europeans need to take responsibility for large parts of conventional defense against Russia. The transatlantic relationship and EU-NATO cooperation remain key to overall security, but the future of NATO is seen as unclear as Europe is forced to take on heavier security burdens and trust less in the United States. (Source)

Oil hits $117 on Iran fears

Oil prices hit $117 for the first time since April on fears of a flare-up in Iran hostilities, according to the Financial Times. The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint, with Tehran reportedly shutting the strait after Israeli strikes on Lebanon. (Source)

US imposes sanctions on Iran weapons procurement network

The US government announced fresh sanctions on 13 individuals and entities, including some based in Russia, China, Hong Kong, and Pakistan, saying they helped Iran procure weapons and components. (Source)

Carnegie: US and China converge in Middle East

In the Middle East and North Africa, the competition between the United States and China presents itself not as a threat but as an opportunity for regional powers. Washington and Beijing's positions in MENA are increasingly converging, and the two powers should accept competition and find a division of labor that safeguards their respective interests in free trade, stability, and security. (Source)

Qatari mediators press US-Iran peace deal

Qatar said it hopes that shuttle diplomacy between Iran and the US can lead to a breakthrough despite Trump's denial of media reports that he was willing to ease sanctions and release frozen funds in exchange for Iranian concessions on its nuclear program. (Source)

The geopolitical picture in October 2026 is best understood as a system under stress. Three major theaters - Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Taiwan Strait - are not independent events but interconnected fronts in a broader contest between the US-led order and what the Hudson Institute calls an 'anti-Western axis' centered on China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The near-simultaneous crises that erupted in January 2026, including the US operation to apprehend Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, and heightened military tensions in the Taiwan Strait, are all connected by the same underlying structure.

Europe faces a particular strategic dilemma. The EU's own foreign policy document acknowledges that the US is recalibrating its priorities, with expectations that Europeans assume greater responsibility for their own security. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has frequently discussed the idea that China and Russia might launch coordinated military offensives in Asia and Europe at the same time, and the alliance is grappling with how to prepare for that scenario. China positions itself to win systemic competition by combining industrial scale, technological ambition, and global reach while exploiting instability. Its support for Russia's aggression against Ukraine is described by the EU as a 'crucial enabler for Moscow.'

The US-China relationship remains the central competitive dynamic. China now has a larger navy than the US, is steadily increasing pressure on Taiwan, and plays the key economic role in the anti-Western axis by buying almost all of Iran's oil despite US sanctions. The question for 2026 and beyond is whether this competition can be managed below the threshold of direct conflict, or whether a crisis in one theater cascades into another. (Source)