Israel Watch: Research Digest

Date saved: 2026-10-28 03:00 (PDT)

Sources: AP, CNN, DW, Independent, Guardian, Al Jazeera, Reuters, UN OCHA, CFR, Next Century Foundation, Daily Star, ETV Bharat

Key findings

Israel election: no clear winner, exit polls show deadlock

AP (October 27-28, 2026): Israeli voters delivered a sharp rebuke to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with exit polls indicating voters gave his opponents a solid majority in the next parliament. Exit polls released early Wednesday by major Israeli TV stations suggested Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's each won about 51 seats, and Arab parties won about 18. That would set the stage for weeks of political jockeying before a prime minister is declared or another round of elections is called. Netanyahu addressed exuberant supporters past 3 a.m. Wednesday, saying exit polls indicate his Likud will be the largest party. The revised polls suggest Likud will be the largest party with about 27 seats, but the broader blocs each captured about 51 seats. No one party won the necessary 61-seat majority. (Source)

CNN (October 27, 2026): Netanyahu's bloc of ultra-Orthodox and far-right allies has lost its majority and is projected to collapse from 68 seats in the Knesset to 52, according to the Channel 12 exit poll. His Likud party will still be the largest single party. Netanyahu's biggest rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, is narrowly behind, with his bloc projected to secure 49 seats. Arab parties Joint List and Raam are projected to win a record 19 seats, the largest Arab representation ever. The three main Israeli TV channels projected Netanyahu's bloc at 51-52 seats, marking a steep drop from the 68-seat coalition he led in the outgoing Knesset. (Source)

DW (October 26, 2026): Israelis voted in a general election that pitted Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition against an opposition alliance led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. On October 27, more than 640,000 young Israelis became eligible to vote for the first time. Trump endorsed Netanyahu ahead of the elections. (Source)

Independent (October 28, 2026): Anger over the government's handling of October 7 has cast a long shadow over Israel's election and could spell the end of the Netanyahu era. Exit polls show the two blocs neck and neck, but this time Netanyahu cannot win enough seats to form a government. The opposition has a real opportunity. Gadi Eisenkot is the candidate most likely to lead the opposition bloc and replace Netanyahu. But a draw also works for Netanyahu: if neither bloc can form a government, a second election will be called, leaving Netanyahu in his seat for another six months as caretaker. (Source)

Guardian (October 28, 2026): Israel election results live: vote count continues as exit polls suggest no clear winner. Netanyahu, Eisenkot stake rival claims as the vote deadlocks. (Source)

West Bank escalation: Hebron closure and military operations

UN OCHA (October 26, 2026): Israeli attacks on war-torn Gaza over the weekend killed at least six Palestinians, including children, despite a year-old ceasefire agreement. In the occupied West Bank, settler violence continued through the ongoing olive harvest. Five Palestinians were killed and over 240 injured by Israeli forces or settlers over the past two weeks, with 200 olive harvest-related attacks documented since the start of September. 57 Palestinians were reported killed and 319 injured between September 29 and October 12, bringing the total number of casualties since the October 2025 ceasefire to 1,493 fatalities and 5,299 injuries. Record demolitions displaced 96 Palestinians. (Source)

Next Century Foundation (October 26, 2026): On October 23, two Palestinian gunmen attacked soldiers at a checkpoint near Hebron, killing two soldiers before both gunmen were shot dead. Netanyahu ordered Hebron closed and told the army to prepare for a full West Bank lockdown. By Saturday, the military announced a counterterrorism operation in the Hebron area expected to last several days, alongside raids in dozens of other West Bank areas. About 2,500 people have been forced out of Hebron, at least 47 detained, and dozens of buildings targeted for demolition, with nearly 500 families uprooted in Ein Deir Bahha alone. About 70 people are arrested and forces raid at least 15 towns in the north. Settler violence continues, and nine of the ten settlers arrested over attacks on a US journalist and European diplomats have been released to house arrest. (Source)

Al Jazeera / CFR (October 25-26, 2026): Israeli forces killed five Palestinians during operations in the southern Gaza Strip. Israeli forces killed eight Palestinians during operations in Gaza, including a strike on the Islamic University in Gaza City that killed three people. Israeli forces displaced about 1,200 Palestinian Hebron residents as part of their ongoing response to the attack that killed two Israeli soldiers at a Hebron checkpoint. Israeli forces raided fifteen towns in the West Bank and detained dozens of Palestinians. (Source)

Daily Star (October 2026): Israel said it killed three Hamas militants in an air strike in the occupied West Bank, taking the death toll from a large-scale military operation now in its third day to at least 19. Israel described its raids on towns and refugee camps across the northern West Bank as counter-terrorism operations. Palestinian militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad said at least 13 of those killed were their fighters. In Gaza, Israeli artillery pounded western areas of Gaza City, and a medical source at Nasser Hospital said an Israeli strike killed three people near Khan Yunis. The UN said at least 637 Palestinians had been killed in the territory by Israeli troops or settlers since the Gaza war began. (Source)

ETV Bharat (October 24, 2026): Israel's military said that in response to the killing of two soldiers, its forces began conducting precise, targeted, and thorough searches in the area of Hebron. All residents will only be able to leave through three designated exit points following security screening. The army said it has started demolishing infrastructure that poses a threat and that its soldiers continue operating across the West Bank. On Saturday, Israel imposed widespread closures and displaced people across Hebron. At least one Palestinian was killed in an Israeli air strike targeting the Rimal neighbourhood west of Gaza City. (Source)

DW (October 25, 2026): Israel to close all West Bank land crossings on election day. (Source)

Gaza under the ceasefire

Next Century Foundation (October 26, 2026): Killings continue under the ceasefire, with eight Palestinians reported killed on October 25 alone, and Israel's forces now controlling or restricting access to nearly two-thirds of the territory. The Ministry's count of people killed since the ceasefire is now about 1,550. On October 22, four people were killed in Gaza in 24 hours. Al Jazeera's maps show Israel's forces expanding from northern Gaza towards the centre and west, with nearly two-thirds of Gaza under Israeli military control or subject to access restrictions, while Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor warns of a new famine as markets empty and prices soar. (Source)

CFR (October 23, 2026): Two Palestinian men attacked Israeli forces at a checkpoint in Hebron; the exchange of gunfire killed both men and two Israeli soldiers and injured another three. Israeli forces say the checkpoint stop thwarted a terrorist attack targeting civilians. In response, Netanyahu ordered a lockdown of the city and the demolition of homes in the area. Two Palestinian gunmen attacked Israel's soldiers at a checkpoint near Hebron in a firefight lasting about 20 minutes. (Source)

Guardian (October 23, 2026): Netanyahu orders West Bank closure as Israeli soldiers, Palestinian gunmen killed in exchanges. (Source)

Israel held its most consequential election since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, and the result was a deadlock that leaves the country in political limbo. Exit polls showed neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor his main rival Gadi Eisenkot's bloc within reach of the 61 seats needed for a governing majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Netanyahu's coalition dropped from 68 seats to a projected 51-52, a steep decline that reflects public anger over the government's handling of the war. Arab parties surged to a record 19 seats, the largest Arab representation ever, and could play a key role in forming a new government.

But the election was fought against a backdrop of escalating violence in the West Bank and continued killings in Gaza under the year-old ceasefire. Two Palestinian gunmen attacked Israeli soldiers at a checkpoint near Hebron on October 23, killing two soldiers. Netanyahu responded by ordering Hebron closed and telling the army to prepare for a full West Bank lockdown. By the weekend, Israeli forces had displaced about 2,500 people from Hebron, raided at least 15 towns in the north, detained dozens, and demolished buildings. Settler violence continued through the olive harvest, and nine of the ten settlers arrested over attacks on a US journalist and European diplomats have been released to house arrest.

Key findings

Israel election: no clear winner, exit polls show deadlock

West Bank escalation: Hebron closure and military operations

Gaza under the ceasefire

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